It might as well be called the Strategic Political Reserve.

After the OPEC+ cartel rebuffed President Biden’s request to release more oil last Thursday, the White House floated the idea of releasing barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to tame prices. Tuesday’s outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said would form the basis of its next steps, did nothing to suggest it is needed. The agency barely increased its Brent crude oil price forecast for the fourth...

It might as well be called the Strategic Political Reserve.

After the OPEC+ cartel rebuffed President Biden’s request to release more oil last Thursday, the White House floated the idea of releasing barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to tame prices. Tuesday’s outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said would form the basis of its next steps, did nothing to suggest it is needed. The agency barely increased its Brent crude oil price forecast for the fourth quarter and affirmed OPEC’s expectation that the world oil market will be oversupplied by 2022.

The White House probably knows an SPR release won’t do much to actually curb pump prices. That might not matter as long as the administration can partially refill its tank of political capital by appearing to do something while assigning blame. There have been some obvious targets (OPEC+) and some head-scratchers (it has been directing the Federal Trade Commission to look into market manipulation).

But tapping the SPR would fall outside of the stockpile’s primary intent: an emergency response tool when the U.S. is confronted with an “economically threatening disruption in oil supplies.” There are only three times in history when the White House directed an emergency drawdown. Two involved serious disruptions to supply as a result of wars: Libya in 2011 and Iraq in 1991. The draw in 2005 followed Hurricane Katrina’s shut-in of around a quarter of U.S. production. Today’s emergency is largely political: Retail gasoline prices are near $3.50 a gallon amid rising demand—a level not seen in at least seven years—as voters complain about the highest inflation in decades.

A release (30 million barrels is the maximum over a 60-day period for anything less than a severe energy supply interruption) won’t do much to help U.S. consumers in the near term, which is when oil markets are expected to experience tightness. The stockpiles are in Texas and Louisiana. As RBC Capital Markets’ Michael Tran wrote recently, overall oil inventories are tight but the refineries that the SPR would deliver to already have abundant supply. The Gulf Coast has 6.3% more in crude-oil inventory compared with the five-year seasonal average, according to the EIA. It is other regions that face shortages. The Midwest’s inventories, for example, are 22.7% below the five-year average. There is no quick, easy way of transporting SPR barrels north.

Historical precedent shows how temporary, and even counterproductive, a release’s impact could be. On June 23, 2011, when the U.S. made a coordinated release along with other countries, Brent crude dipped 6% on the day of the announcement to $107.37 a barrel and then another 1.2% the following day. Two weeks later, oil was $4.66 a barrel more expensive than before the announcement.

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One reason might be that markets know governments must buy oil to replace what they just sold. An emergency release also can send a message that governments are losing confidence that there is spare capacity at big exporters, according to a 2012 paper from Blake Clayton, former fellow for energy and national security at the Council on Foreign Relations. That fear is already building, with producers such as Nigeria and Angola badly lagging behind their production quotas. And an SPR release today could limit the administration’s options if oil prices rise even further.

It is easy to play the blame game, but even experts don’t always understand why oil prices move the way they do. They could rise or fall in the coming weeks for any number of reasons, including economic optimism, Covid-19 cases or the weather. With some analysts expecting oil prices to hit $100 a barrel or higher, Mr. Biden may want to keep one of the few tools he has for a real emergency.

Write to Jinjoo Lee at jinjoo.lee@wsj.com