The IEA is more upbeat on the oil demand recovery due to progress in rolling out COVID-19 vaccine programs, a raft of fiscal stimulus packages, and signs of strong industrial activity in China.
After collapsing by 8.7 million b/d in 2020, the IEA estimates demand growth will rebound by 13.1 million b/d to 104.1 million b/d by 2026.
Global oil demand, including biofuels, will recover to reach 103.2 million b/d in 2025, up from 91 million b/d in 2020 and almost 100 million b/d in 2019.
Overall, global oil demand is now forecast to rise by 3.5 million b/d between 2019 and 2025, up from an estimate of 2.8 million b/d in October.
IEA sees no peak oil demand under default scenario so tougher government policies needed to curb oil use.
London — The International Energy Agency published its latest medium-term oil market outlook on March. 17 containing closely-watched forecasts for oil supply and demand fundamentals to 2026.
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Register NowBelow are the main projections from the 'Oil 2021' report.
Demand
Supply
- Warns of shrinking of global spare capacity supply cushion in the absence of more upstream spending.
- OPEC's effective spare crude production capacity will narrow to 2.4 million b/d by 2026, from 6.5 million b/d in 2020, the bulk of it in Saudi Arabia.
- The Middle East will dominate 2021-2026 supply growth picture, while US supply growth will be more modest compared to recent years.
- IEA estimates that the demand for OPEC's crude will rise from 27.3 million b/d this year to reach 30.8 million b/d in 2026.
- By 2026, total oil production will rise by 10.2 million b/d from a six-year low of 94 million b/d in 2020.
- Fragile African OPEC members to see production declines.
Refining
- Refining activity fell almost 10% to 74.4 million b/d in 2020, a level last seen in 2010, due to global lockdowns.
- Global refining shutdowns of 3.6 million b/d have already been announced, but a total of at least 6 million b/d will be needed to allow utilization rates to return to above 80%.
- The IEA expects 8.5 million b/d of new refining capacity to come online from 2020 through to 2026, the bulk of which will be in China, the Middle East and India.
- A third of oil demand growth to 2026 will be met by products bypassing the refining sector, such as NGLs and biofuels.
World oil demand and supply - million b/d
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Total OECD
47.7
42.1
44.7
45.8
46.2
46.2
46
45.8
Total Non-OECD
52
48.9
51.7
53.7
55
56.1
57.2
58.3
Total Demand
99.7
91
96.5
99.4
101.2
102.3
103.2
104.1
Total OECD
28.5
27.9
28.2
29
29.6
29.9
29.9
29.7
Total Non-OECD
32
30.5
30.6
31.5
32
32
32.1
32.1
Processing Gains
2.4
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5
Global Biofuels
2.8
2.6
2.8
3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.3
Total Non-OPEC
65.6
63.1
63.9
66
67.1
67.5
67.7
67.6
Crude
29.5
25.7
NGLs
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.7
Total OPEC
34.9
30.9
27.3
28
28.6
29.2
29.9
30.8
Total supply
100.5
93.9
Call on OPEC crude + stocks
28.7
22.8
27.3
28
28.6
29.2
29.9
30.8
Source: IEA's Oil 2021
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March 17, 2021 at 07:15PM
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Key oil market forecasts from the IEA's Oil 2021 report - S&P Global
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