Oil Market: News and Analysis for July 12 - Bloomberg

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Oil was steady after a two-day gain amid optimism that fuel demand will keep rising, despite a Covid-19 resurgence in many regions.

Futures in New York traded near $75 a barrel after advancing more than 2% on Friday. The rollout of vaccines and rebound in economic activity across major economies, particularly the U.S., has underpinned increasing fuel consumption. The spread of the highly infectious delta variant of the virus and uncertainty over supply from the OPEC+ alliance are clouding the outlook, however.

There are also signs that China’s rebound is slowing. It’s economy was always expected to descend from the heights hit during its initial rebound, but economists say the softening has come sooner than expected.

Oil’s upward momentum was interrupted last week after an OPEC+ meeting on output levels was abandoned. Crude capped its first weekly loss since May -- despite an end-of-week rally -- with the stalemate raising concern the group’s unity may fracture and lead to a price war. The alliance had been widely expected to restore more of the production sidelined during the pandemic

See also: Oil Bears Will Play Until OPEC Finds a Compromise: Julian Lee

“The data continues to point to strong growth in demand, however, investors are becoming increasingly concerned about the potential impact of rising cases of new variants of the virus,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodities strategist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group. Questions about OPEC+ output are adding to the uncertainty, he added.

Prices
West Texas Intermediate for August delivery was little changed at $74.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 6 a.m. in London after climbing 3.3% over the past two sessions. Futures lost 0.8% last week. Brent for September settlement lost 0.1% to $75.49 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after adding 1.9% on Friday.

The International Energy Agency will provide investors with a snapshot of the market on Tuesday with the release of its monthly report, while OPEC will also release its monthly report on Thursday.

The market’s bullish structure has eased slightly on the OPEC+ uncertainty. The prompt timespread for Brent was 82 cents a barrel in backwardation -- where near-dated contracts are more expensive than later-dated ones. That compares with 99 cents a week earlier.

See also: U.S. Oil Soars Above Mideast Crude on Rising Fuel Margins: Chart

The coronavirus remains a constant source of concern. The U.S. reported the most cases since mid-May as delta takes hold in less vaccinated areas. French officials warned of a new wave, while U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will warn people to stay vigilant as he prepares to lift virtually all remaining restrictions in England. In Asia, Indonesia is in the throes of a major outbreak and case numbers are also high in Thailand and Malaysia.

Other market news:

Saudi Aramco will give full contractual crude oil supply to at least five buyers in Asia for August sales, according to refinery officials who were notified by the producer. Evidence of U.S. oil explorers holding the line on spending is no more apparent than in the weekly rig count for America’s busiest shale patch, the Permian Basin. Limetree Bay Energy is preparing for a bankruptcy filing by its oil refinery in the U.S. Virgin Islands after the company indefinitely extended a shutdown of the plant.

— With assistance by Jake Lloyd-Smith

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