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Chinese oil demand on rebound - Houston Chronicle

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WASHINGTON - Chinese oil demand has begun to rebound from the coronavirus pandemic, as the government there has lifted social distancing measures over the past two months.

Chinese oil demand is expected to average 13 million barrels a day from the beginning of April to the end of June, a 16 percent increase over the first three months of the year, the research firm Wood Mackenzie reported Tuesday.

“Since April, the Chinese government has gradually lifted the coronavirus containment measures. Specifically, China is now easing restrictions on social, commercial and travel activities," said Wood Mackenzie research associate Yuwei Pei. “More people are returning to the office after a period of telecommuting."

The rebound marks a promising sign for an oil industry that has been ravaged by an estimated 30 percent decline in global fuel demand, at one point causing the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate to trade at a negative price for the first time in history.

For now the decline in Chinese coronavirus cases is giving the economy a boost, with gasoline demand there expected to reach 3.5 million barrels a day between the beginning of July and the end of September, a 3 percent increase over the same period last year.

But with storage continuing to fill and prices still below $40 a barrel, the oil sector remains deeply stressed, with a wave of bankruptcies expected. And it's unclear whether other countries will be able to limit the spread of the coronavirus to the degree China has.

"Even if China avoids a second wave of infections, as long as the pandemic remains globally, the country will maintain strict border controls, thus restraining aviation," said Wood Mackenzie consultant Yujiao Lei. "Besides, the ongoing global economic downturn will likely have an adverse impact on China’s exports and investments, putting downward pressure on industrial and commercial transport activity.”

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