Crude oil prices should see an uptick by mid-week due to storm activity in the U.S. Gulf, though the immediate concern for prices is increased production from Libya.
Hurricane-like conditions are expected in Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and the extreme western edge of Cuba later on Monday from Tropical Storm Zeta, which is expected to become a hurricane as early as Tuesday morning. British supermajor BP is already evacuating staff from four of its offshore platforms.
The last storm in Gulf, Hurricane Delta, briefly sidelined about 90 percent of offshore oil production and 62 percent of natural gas production in the Gulf, skewing weekly data on oil and petroleum product inventories that can drive commodity prices.
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Balancing the expected shut-in production from the Gulf is the return of Libyan oil. Rival factions last week brokered a truce, tacitly ending a decade-long civil war in Libya. After the pact was signed, Libya’s National Oil Corp. began increasing output and exports that could jump from around 600,000 barrels per day to 1 million barrles per day within four weeks.
Oil was down more than 2 percent in New York Monday morning, trading at about $39 a barrel.
Giovanni Staunovo, a commodities analyst at Swiss investment bank UBS, said mixed signals are competing for the attention of oil traders. Libyan oil is coming on the market as a resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe leads to new restrictions that could undermine demand. At the same time, members of OPEC+ are sticking to productions while demand in China and India remains solid.
That, however, only gets us to about Wednesday, when the market will start focusing almost exclusively on the U.S. election. Most data point to a victory for former Vice President Joe Biden, troubling an oil sector worried about a green transition. Biden has proposed a banning hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, on federal lands, which represent a small portion of U.S. oil production, which primarily occurs on private property. He also has said that he wants to transition the U.S. economy from fossil fuels as climate change advances rapidly.
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Brigham McCown, founder of consultancy Alliance for Innovation and Infrastructure, said the market's focus will soon shift to what's next for the oil and gas industry as opposed to what's happening now.
“What does moving away from oil and gas look like? " he said. "Is it even possible?”
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October 26, 2020 at 08:31PM
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Libya, Zeta compete for oil’s attention - Houston Chronicle
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