Some African countries, which have done little to cause the climate crisis, say they should. Many climate activists on the continent call the idea “folly.” We unpack the debate.
Today’s newsletter is devoted to one of the most consequential arguments roiling the climate world: Which countries, if any, should start new gas projects now, and for what purpose?
The question has taken on new urgency as the war in Ukraine scrambles the global energy system and prompts European leaders to try to replace Russian gas with supplies from elsewhere. Italy has scored deals to buy gas from Angola and the Republic of Congo. German leaders are trying to sign deals with Senegal.
Leaders of some gas-rich countries in Africa have an answer. They’re eager to extract more of their riches, especially at a time when prices are high. They’re eager for investments. And they point out that greenhouse gas emissions from the continent have contributed little to the climate crisis.
African government ministers meeting in Egypt this month called on world leaders to “avoid approaches that encourage abrupt disinvestments from fossil fuels.”
Expect this debate to unfold in public and behind closed doors as presidents and prime ministers gather in New York at the United Nations General Assembly this week, and later this fall COP27, the year’s big climate summit in Egypt.
I’ve been listening to people on different sides. Here’s the gist of what I’ve learned.
Does gas pollute?
Gas is often called natural gas, because, like all fossil fuels, it’s derived from nature. But it would be more accurate to call it methane gas, because methane is its principal ingredient.
When burned to produce heat or electricity, gas is cleaner than coal. When it escapes unburned, though, it heats up the atmosphere super fast. A lot of methane leaks from pipelines and tanks.
Currently, the United States and Russia are the world’s largest gas producers.
Why the focus on Africa?
According to the International Energy Agency, 600 million people in Africa lack access to electricity, and 970 million live without low-pollution cooking fuels, which consigns mostly women and girls to burning charcoal and wood in their kitchens. More shocking, a smaller share of the population has access to electricity today than in 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic.
That problem could be solved by 2030 with investments of $25 billion a year, according to the I.E.A. — a fraction of what’s invested in global energy today.
Is gas necessary to widen energy access for Africans?
Renewables, especially solar and geothermal energy, could meet 80 percent of the electricity generation capacity needed, according to the I.E.A. The same projections conclude that, between now and 2030, Africa would also need gas (around 90 billion cubic meters a year) to generate the electricity needed to produce things like cement, steel, and fertilizers.
Gas or no gas is the wrong question, said Damilola Ogunbiyi, a native of Nigeria who now serves as the United Nations special representative for Sustainable Energy for All. The right question is how to expand access to energy. At the moment, she said, that is not possible without some gas.
“Lifting 600 million people out of poverty, that has to be the front line item of the energy transition,” Ogunbiyi told me. “Giving, you know, a few million Africans some solar lanterns, that is not development. Development is to have enough electricity that you can run your small business, so you can manufacture.”
Pushback: Gas for whom?
Some African climate activists argue that the extraction of the continent’s natural resources has not served its people well. Nigeria is the continent’s largest oil producer, and even some villages in its oil-rich delta live in darkness. South Africa is rich in coal, but while exports to Europe have surged, South Africans deal with power cuts. A new pipeline is under construction to transport crude oil from Uganda to a port in Tanzania, from where it can be exported to buyers abroad. It faces pushback from climate activists in the region.
The Ugandan climate activist Vanessa Nakate described gas as “a dangerous distraction.”
“Decades of fossil fuel development in Africa have already failed to deliver promised prosperity,” she said by email. “We need finance from the Global North for cheap and reliable renewable energy instead.”
Investing in new gas projects, especially for export to Europe, carries a risk, argued Mohamed Adow, a Kenyan climate campaigner. African countries could end up with expensive pipelines and other infrastructure that’s no longer needed in the coming years as the world shifts to renewables, which are becoming ever cheaper.
“Attempts to expand gas production in Africa are not being done to tackle energy poverty but for export, largely to rich, energy-hungry countries in the Global North,” he said. “This dash for gas is to make a quick buck whilst countries in Europe face a short-term energy squeeze.”
He called it “folly.”
If Africa developed its gas resources, how would that affect global emissions?
The I.E.A. projected the emissions footprint of the continent’s untapped gas reserves. If it develops its known reserves, Africa’s cumulative carbon dioxide emissions over the next 30 years would amount to around 10 metric gigatons.
The countries of sub-Saharan Africa account for around 3 percent of global historic emissions today. “If these emissions were added to Africa’s cumulative total today, they would bring its share of global emissions to a mere 3.5 percent,” the energy agency concluded.
A Times event: Join Al Gore and John Kerry online today
The Times is running a series of virtual climate events leading up to COP27, this year’s big climate summit in Egypt in November. The first one, with Al Gore, John Kerry and others, is today, Sept. 20, from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. Eastern time. You can watch live here.
Why Puerto Rico is in the dark: We look at three major factors that explain Fiona’s catastrophic impact on the island.
Broken infrastructure: Residents of Jackson, Miss., no longer have to boil water before drinking it. But the city’s water system is still struggling.
Return of a beloved tree: Chestnuts were nearly wiped out a century ago. A nonprofit group is trying to bring them back at former coal mines.
Cheetahs return to India: Scientists are reintroducing the cats to the country, where they were long ago hunted to local extinction.
Condensed communities: A project in London shows how creating extra housing in underutilized parts of the city can reduce emissions.
Figuring out what works: The economist Esther Duflo talks about the need to fight climate change and inequality at the same time and avoid “a political problem from hell.”
From the opinion section
Jesse Jenkins, an energy and climate expert at Princeton University, explains on “The Ezra Klein Show” why we need to completely rewire America to combat climate change.
Gina McCarthy, the departing national climate adviser, says she’s seen a paradigm shift during her tenure: Businesses now see climate action as an opportunity, not a burden.
From outside The Times
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A new report reviewed by NPR showed that the 10 countries that have suffered most from extreme weather since 2000 have also seen hunger increase sharply.
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The World Health Organization said waterborne diseases could lead to a “second disaster” in Pakistan, The Associated Press reported.
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From The Intercept: Oil companies are making the case that climate denialism is protected speech, not fraudulent advertising.
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Bloomberg explained how La Niña is likely to create $1 trillion in losses from weather-related disasters by next year.
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Scientists estimate there are nearly 20 quadrillion ants crawling the Earth, The Washington Post reported.
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Grist selected eight dishes that show what climate-friendly cooking could look like in the future. There are recipes, too.
Before you go: How solar energy gives schools a boost
Almost a tenth of K-12 public and private schools across the United States are now using solar panels, and that has led to big savings on energy bills. The extra cash has allowed administrators to make renovations and even give salary increases to teachers at no cost to taxpayers. That pleases both conservatives and liberals. “It’s a win-win,” one school superintendent said.
Thanks for being a subscriber. We’ll be back on Friday.
Manuela Andreoni, Claire O’Neill and Douglas Alteen contributed to Climate Forward. Read past editions of the newsletter here.
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